Previous posts in this discussion:
PostIn Wake of SVB Collapse, a Recession? (Enrique Torner, USA, 03/19/23 8:29 am)
There has been a lot of talk about banks failing, but we've heard hardly anything about the possible consequences. Some people are spreading fears that our economy is going to collapse or go into a severe recession:
What do our WAIS financial gurus think?
JE comments: Ah, predicting is hard. Especially about the future, etc. And recessions are the most dismal prediction of all in the Dismal Science.
What we have not seen is a wave of bank collapses. SVB is/was regional and specialized. Yet Big Tech is "downsizing" thousands of jobs. A question for our Bay Area colleagues: Is the pain "tangible" at present?
Peter Schiff Predicts a Recession; from Michael Frank
(John Eipper, USA
03/20/23 2:52 AM)
Michael Frank writes:
Enrique Torner (March 19th) referred to Peter Schiff's prediction of an imminent recession, and asked for our thoughts.
If you want to get an opinion that the US economy is imploding due to Fed policy, Schiff has been saying that for as long as anyone can remember. Every now and again, his call for a downturn coincides with an actual downturn.
JE comments: I don't know Schiff's work, but is he a contrarian? The "sky is falling" view can be very profitable if you take the right positions.
Michael Frank has also sent a historical deep dive into the Volcker years of high interest rates. Stay tuned, later today.