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PAX, LUX ET VERITAS SINCE 1965
Post Does Today Look Like the Eves of World Wars I and II?
Created by John Eipper on 09/13/21 7:46 AM

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Does Today Look Like the Eves of World Wars I and II? (Hall Gardner, -France, 09/13/21 7:46 am)

On the Pre-War comparison I brought up in my post of September 12th:

The Pre-World War II period: The collapse of the Soviet Union parallels the collapse of Imperial Germany after Word War I, while Russian efforts to reach out to China parallel the efforts of Weimar, and then Nazi, Germany to reach out to Soviet Russia in the Rapallo Pact and then the Molotov-Ribbentrop pact.

Nothing parallels the latter yet, so a full-fledged Sino-Russian alliance has not yet been forged. Nevertheless, as argued in my National Interest article, Moscow's support for the China's missile defense comes close to such an alliance.

The Pre-World War I period: US support for NATO and the EU, plus the Quad of Japan, India and Australia vs Russia and China comes close to playing the role of the Triple Entente vs Imperial Germany and its Triple alliance, with a few nuances.

If history repeats itself, only cockroaches will survive a major power war.  Yet even if major power war is not in the cards, contemporary proxy and cyber wars are generally escalating.  The time is now for re-thinking global politics and for ameliorating disputes and conflicts through engaged diplomacy!

JE comments:  It's never the wrong time to avert war.  A question about alliances now and alliances pre-1914.  If we look at the example of NATO and the Warsaw Pact, the competing alliance structure actually prevented a major war.  (I know, there's the sticky issue of correlation vs causality, but something worked for 40+ years.) 

How reliable is the Pacific "Quad"--Japan and Australia of course, but what about India?  The fourth member I presume is the United States.  But don't overlook North and South Korea, with the world's fourth and seventh-largest armed forces, respectively.

Is today's Powder Keg the Far East?  The Middle East just seems so much more volatile.


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