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Post Will Lula Return to Power in 2022?
Created by John Eipper on 08/05/21 4:17 AM

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Will Lula Return to Power in 2022? (Tor Guimaraes, USA, 08/05/21 4:17 am)

John Eipper asked me, "Could you send us some forecasts for Brazil's next round of presidential elections, slated for October 2022? Any chance Bolsonaro could be re-elected? Or will Lula return to power?"

Unfortunately in this case, my crystal ball is too cloudy for strong opinions. The evidence from Brazil indicates a situation eerily similar to the last election in the US. In the eyes of most Brazilians Bolsonaro seems to be as crazy and incompetent as Trump. He also has a significant percentage of diehard supporters who could easily "rationalize" any outrageous act. Bolsonaro also seems to have significant support within the military.

Lula must know something I don't know, because he is playing like he expects to be able to run again in 2022. Assuming he is able to run freely, he would probably win despite his old warts.

Thus, with so many ifs, my crystal ball is presently very murky for Brazil.

JE comments: I respect your caution, Tor. Brazilian politics is a full-contact sport.  Forecasting the outcomes is probably a fool's game.  Wasn't Bolsonaro himself a political unknown when he burst on the scene?  For Lula's part, his conviction was overturned earlier this summer (how did that happen?), which allows him to return to the political circus.

Our colleague in Brasilia, David Fleischer, closely follows Brazilian politics.  David, can you weigh in?

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