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Post Catalonia's Regional Elections: Looking at the Numbers
Created by John Eipper on 02/21/21 3:26 AM

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Catalonia's Regional Elections: Looking at the Numbers (Eugenio Battaglia, Italy, 02/21/21 3:26 am)

As already mentioned by José Ignacio Soler on 18 February, I too was surprised not to see any comment on the regional elections from the pro-independence Catalonian WAISers. However, by scrutinizing the data we may understand why.

It is not possible to celebrate such an election, as voter turnout dropped from 4,393,891 or 79% to 2,2869,070 or 53.55%.  This is probably due to the Covid pandemic, but are the people of Catalunya also sick and tired of the fight for independence?
The results for the three independence parties: ERC 21.3% and 33 seats, Junts 20.0% and 32 seats, CUP extreme left 6.6% and 9 seats, for a total of 74.  The PSC got 23.0% and 33 seats, followed by VOX with 11 seats (good show), Podemos 8, Ciudadanos 6, and PP 3, for a total of  61.

The Spanish electoral system is proportional and very complicated, with some kind of gerrymandering.  As such it may not be a true representation of the population's feelings. The independentists received only a total of 47.9% (Nacho Soler indicates 50.5% and I cannot explain this difference) but with 74 seats. Furthermore, we may even say that the total votes expressed by them are only 21.9% of those who were entitled to vote, but you can make the same argument about those who are against independence.

JE comments:  Can anyone fill us in on how absentee voting worked in the Catalonian regional elections?  If it was not a straightforward and widely available option, this would explain the decreased turnout.  If it was simple to vote absentee, Eugenio Battaglia's conjecture is probably correct:  amidst a pandemic and a recession, independence is no longer the public's primary concern.

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