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Post Brexit Update: An Extension for the UK?
Created by John Eipper on 03/14/19 11:25 AM

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Brexit Update: An Extension for the UK? (Timothy Ashby, Spain, 03/14/19 11:25 am)

(Writing from London): Actually London real estate prices have been declining for the past 12-18 months. Part of this is due to Brexit anxiety, but also prices for housing had reached such ridiculous levels that very few people (especially young people trying to get on the bottom rung of the "property ladder") couldn't afford to buy. My theory is that real estate, like water, always reaches its own level.

Last evening there were two majority votes in Parliament to rule out a "No Deal" Brexit. While these are not binding in law, they certainly indicate the mood of Parliament. If Article 50 is not amended or overturned by Parliament, Brexit will still take place, by default, on 29th March. I don't think this will happen, and I expect that Parliament will tonight pass a resolution to delay Brexit by at least two months.

Theresa May plans to again introduce her tarnished "deal" to a Parliamentary vote next week, despite the fact that it has been overwhelmingly rejected twice. I had lunch today with a well-known MP (a determined Brexiteer) who told me that MPs are so fed up with May that the Speaker of the House is being urged to rule that she cannot submit her "deal" a third time. I don't know a single Tory MP who supports PM May--many privately revile her. When I asked my friend (who favours a "hard" Brexit) what he thinks the future holds, he shook his head and said that at this stage no one knows.

My prediction is that the EU will allow an extension, Theresa May will be ousted, and her successor (Boris Johnson?) will come up with a new exit plan, which may run into the same problems, especially over the issue of the border between Eire and Northern Ireland.

JE comments:  Tim, really appreciate this insider's perspective.  Is BoJo willing to take the job?  I presume he is.  As for the Irish border, aren't there turnstiles and shacks left over from the old days?  Slap some paint on them, and...

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