Previous posts in this discussion:
PostTurmoil in Nicaragua (Timothy Brown, USA, 09/11/18 4:34 am)
I thank Edward Jajko (10 September) for finally bringing up some of what has been happening in Nicaragua recently.
Regrettably, but as I've come to expect, much of what is said in the articles about events before the recent efforts to solidify the authoritarian regime of Ortega is based on propaganda not evidence, making their narratives sincere and well-intended, but not entirely factual.
Having been a Latin American specialist for much of my life and specialized in Central America, in particular Nicaragua since the 1950s, should any of my WAIS colleagues be interested in digging deeper, please feel free to read one or more of my books: The Real Contra War (Oklahoma, 2001), my PhD dissertation that belies the false narrative about the Contras; When the AK-47s Fall Silent (Hoover, 2000) with a preview by Cuauhtémoc Cárdenas, followed by first-person essays by several pre-Ortega Sandinista Marxists revolutionaries, former Contra comandantes, a former US Ambassador, a UN Canadian General and the Senior Director of the OAS's post-Contra peace process--plus, of course, a closing chapter by me.
The above are based on my fifteen years-plus post-FSO field research, primarily on both sides of Central America's late Cold War "revolutions," including extensive oral histories of leaders of both Marxist and counter-Marxist efforts.
JE comments: Tim, I hate to put you on the spot, but it's my job. What are your medium-term predictions for Nicaragua--say, over the next 12 months? Will the popular unrest topple Ortega?
(It's September 11th--anyone have a reflection for the Forum?)
Daniel Ortega and the Somoza Tradition
(Timothy Brown, USA
09/14/18 3:51 AM)
A very quick followup to my post of September 11th. Once totalitarian dictators have obtained overwhelming power, the most likely outcome is that they stay forever--until death do they part.
In the case of Nicaragua, the Somozas were overwhelmed by superior forces, an advantage they retain.
I invite my fellow WAISers to read beyond the essentially false narrative of how that happened. That, too, was largely false. But once a legend is accepted as truth, it usually becomes the "received wisdom."
Review my book The Real Contra War, then ask yourself, which side was lying?
JE comments: Tim, a curiosity. I Googled your The Real Contra War to double-check my editing. The information that pops up in the right column lists you as the Reverend Timothy Brown. I've read your autobiography and thought I knew my Tim Brown. Marine, diplomat, historian, teacher, raconteur...but pastor too?
Daniel Ortega toppled the Somozas, but in a sense he's become a Somoza. How often in history have struggles against dictators yielded a different dictator?