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Post Predictions for 2017; from Ric Mauricio
Created by John Eipper on 12/29/16 4:51 AM

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Predictions for 2017; from Ric Mauricio (John Eipper, USA, 12/29/16 4:51 am)

Ric Mauricio writes:

I appreciate Istvan Simon's clarification of the definition of givers and takers (27 December). Istvan states that his definition had nothing to do with Trump or Clinton, but previous posters under the US Elections 2016 seem to correlate the election (which involved Trump and Clinton) with the terms "givers and takers." So I went to the source that illustrated the giver/taker status of each state. It was indeed interesting.

Only 14 states are givers. Of course, now it even gets more complex. You see, a taker state like Florida has many Social Security and Medicare recipients, while enjoying a low tax rate on their benefits, while Texan energy companies enjoy many tax benefits and so also qualifies as a taker. Interesting that both of those states have no state income tax. Alaska also has no state income tax and is a taker state, so perhaps again, like Texas, they enjoy energy tax benefits from the Feds as well. Because of their robust economies and being populated by many 1%ers, California and New York qualify as givers. They also happen to have the two highest individual tax rates. Would the logic then be that it is better to a taker than a giver?

Here's an interesting tidbit. Only 51% of eligible voters in California voted. One could extrapolate and double the number of votes each candidate would have then had, but then again, most of those 49ers (49% who did not register or vote; and yes, 49er QB Colin Kaepernick did not vote) would most likely have come from urban areas where Clinton dominated, so a simple extrapolation would not work. A guestimate would probably give Clinton 6 million more popular votes. Whether or not that 6 million more votes would have given her the presidency were it decided by popular vote is anybody's guess, because then we would have to assume that the 49% (the national average) of eligible voters in the other 49 states would have voted as well.

By the way, I am working on my predictions for the investment markets for 2017, which is always fun, because it is like trying to read a crystal ball and I never take other "expert" predictions seriously, so why should I expect anyone to take mine seriously?

Prediction #1 is that the US and Russia will become allies, which will piss off the Saudis and China. Prediction #2 is we will have more cyberattacks and terrorist attacks. Prediction #3 is China's economy will slow down dramatically. Prediction #4: When everybody "knows" that something will happen, the opposite usually happens. Everyone knows the Fed will raise interest rates in 2017 (at least 3 times). Prediction #3 will cause a flight to safety and the only market that can handle that flight is the US Dollar, Bonds, Stocks, and Real Estate. The ensuing flight to bonds will cause bonds to soar and interest rates to fall. Prediction #5: President Trump will tweet and take credit for all this. In other words, he doesn't even have to raise tariffs on foreign goods (since that would increase costs on Mexican cement and South Korean and Chinese steel as well as iPhones).

Happy New Year!

JE comments:  This is the perfect time to share our predictions for the coming year.  Thanks, Ric, for getting the ball rolling.  Who's next?

An angry China could be a dangerous China--particularly for Taiwan and the Philippines.  But it seems to me the quickest way to anger China would be a trade war.  Ric doesn't see Trump starting one.  Finally, in response to Ric's second prediction, a major terrorist event will mean that all bets are off.  This would bring on the truly scary "unknown unknowns."

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