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Postre: Russia, Poland, Ukraine...and Turkey (Alain de Benoist, France) (John Eipper, USA, 05/19/10 4:12 am)
Alain de Benoist writes:
I have read with great interest the discussion between Cameron Sawyer and Gilbert Doctorow about the recent historic turn in the relations of Russia with Ukraine and Poland. Both of them being very well informed, they have described very accurately the new situation.
Another historic turn is now going on in the Middle East, as Turkey seems to have completely changed its foreign political orientations. While many links between Turkey and Israel had been established over recent years, the Turkish government has now adopted a very anti-Israeli stand, of which the rough argument between Shimon Peres and Recip Erdogan (the Turkish Prime Minister) at the last Davos Forum was just an example. The main reason of this new position is the creation by the US of a quasi-independent Kurdish State in Iraq and the support by Israel and the US of the Kurdish separatists in Turkey. In such conditions, the Atlantic Alliance does not appear any more to be a guarantor of the territorial integrity of Turkey, and Israel becomes an enemy. The direct consequence is the formation of a de facto axis Iran-Syria-Turkey, which changes completely the relations of power in the Middle East.
Since the Islamic revolution, Iran is the natural leader of Shia Muslims. Since the destruction of the Iraqian Baaths by Paul Bremmer, Syria has become the uncontested leader of the secular Muslim side. (In six years, more than one million former administrative leaders of Iraq and their families have taken refuge in Syria.) Turkey, being the heir of the caliphate and of the Ottoman Empire, plays an essential role for the Sunnis. The axis Iran-Syria-Turkey has therefore also a great significance for religious reasons. Some consequences should be expected now in Lebanon.
This development is probably not foreign to the recent (and rather astounding) declarations made by David Petraeus, commander-in-chief of the US Central Command, who stressed how much the US support to Israel is detrimental to the US interests in Near East and Middle East.
Another very important fact is that this new axis Teheran-Damascus-Ankara has already received the obvious support, not only of Lula's Brazil (Lula was these last days in Teheran, where he played a very important role as a moderator in the Iranian nuclear file, in clear contradiction with the US position), but also of Russia. Dmitri Medvedev has already made a trip to Ankara and Damascus. It is significant that, in Damascus, he met with Khaled Meechaal, one of the leaders of the Palestinian resistance, who is labelled as a terrorist in Washington (Medvedev previously refused three times to receive Meechaal in Moscow). On the military level, a new Russian naval base has just been opened in Syria, and Russian S-300 missiles could be delivered nearly to Teheran. The new Russian doctrine of defense, validated by Dmitri Medvedev on 5 February, 2010, clearly designates NATO and the US as the main hostile forces.
The Kremlin seems also decided to help Turkey to settle its old litigations with Greece and Armenia. Turkey and Armenia have recently established diplomatic relations, and the recent visit of Recip Erdogan to Greece has been considered a historic event. Ankara and Moscow have in addition decided that in the future Turkish people will be allowed to enter Russia without any visa, even though that Turkish citizens are obliged to have a visa to enter the US or the European union.
All these recent developments are very bad news for the Israeli government, which has also many military problems. During the offensives against Lebanon (2006) and Gaza (2008), the Israelis showed their power of destruction, but have been unable to reach their objectives, the destruction of the Hamas and the Hezbollah. (In Lebanon, Israel lost 120 soldiers and 6 billion dollars. Military experts have calculated that theses losses represent 10 million dollars for each killed member of the Hezbollah.) The Israeli tanks are now vulnerable to the Russian RPGs. The Israeli navy can be reached by the land-sea missiles delivered by China to the Hezbollah. And the appearing of the Russian S-300 missiles in the region could also be a threat to Israeli planes.
Russia, Poland, Ukraine, Turkey, Syria, Iran: the world is sometimes changing quickly.