Login/Sign up

World Association of International Studies

Post Russo-Chinese-Iran "Axis" and the Crisis in Diplomacy
Created by John Eipper on 04/06/19 3:45 AM

Previous posts in this discussion:


Russo-Chinese-Iran "Axis" and the Crisis in Diplomacy (Hall Gardner, France, 04/06/19 3:45 am)

Thanks to JE for his question of January 22nd, and I am sorry not to respond earlier.

My basic argument in IR Theory, Historical Analogy and Major Power War is that IR terminology, particularly that involving concepts of unipolarity, bipolarity, and multipolarity, is not at all useful in helping to understand the multi-dimensional geostrategic, political economic-financial, military-industrial-technological, socio-cultural ideological-religious conflict today, which likewise involves a deep crisis in diplomatic skills and capabilities, as illustrated by the general global turn toward authoritarian-style leadership, including that of Donald Trump.

My argument is that contrary to the hype raised by Trump's presumed neo-isolationism (which is seen as implicitly anti-NATO) and his America First nationalism, Trump's actual policies are now trying to tighten US alliance bonds between NATO, Japan and other states vs. a new Russo-Chinese-Iran Eurasian "axis."

Concurrently, the US-NATO-Japan alliance is competing with the Russia-China axis for closer alliance ties to India, Pakistan, and even states such as Venezuela. While the US and NATO fear the "loss" of NATO-member Turkey to Russia, Moscow fears the "loss" of Ukraine, and potentially Belarus and other states to NATO and the EU.

This tension between competitive alliance expansion and fears of alliance disintegration can generate a global conflict. Trump has argued that his Peace with Strength doctrine and the assertion of America First predominance (with the supposed willing support of US allies) will lead to peace with North Korea, Iran, China and Russia, but his diplomatic style, as indicated by the failed Hanoi summit with North Korea, in which arch neo-conservative National Security Advisor John Bolton evoked the Libya analogy, does not inspire confidence and trust.

Likewise, despite his ostensible promises to improve relations with Moscow (for which Trump has been highly criticized), Trump's decision to drop out of the 1987 INF treaty without first engaging in negotiations aimed at building confidence measures and at controlling, if not reducing, differing forms of nuclear weapons (tactical, intermediate and long-range), as well as new forms of conventional weaponry, including hypersonic and drone systems, coupled with the US and Russian inability to find ways to cooperate on the deployment of missile defense systems, forewarns of a new arms race.

If Trump cannot soon change course and begin to engage in truly concerted diplomacy, the threat of major power war is real.

JE comments:  Great to hear from you, Hall, and thank you for this excellent analysis of Trumpian foreign policy.  This might sound tangential to your main point, but how is Belarus at risk of leaving the Russian sphere of orbit?  I thought it was absolutely within the Putin camp.

Rate this post
Informational value 
Reader Ratings (0)
Informational value0%

Visits: 129


Please login/register to reply or comment: Login/Sign up

Trending Now

All Forums with Published Content (42037 posts)

- Unassigned

Culture & Language

American Indians Art Awards Bestiary of Insults Books Conspiracy Theories Culture Ethics Film Food Futurology Gender Issues Humor Intellectuals Jews Language Literature Media Coverage Movies Music Newspapers Numismatics Philosophy Plagiarism Prisons Racial Issues Sports Tattoos Western Civilization World Communications


Capitalism Economics International Finance World Bank World Economy


Education Hoover Institution Journal Publications Libraries Universities World Bibliography Series


Biographies Conspiracies Crime Decline of West German Holocaust Historical Figures History Holocausts Individuals Japanese Holocaust Leaders Learning Biographies Learning History Russian Holocaust Turkish Holocaust


Afghanistan Africa Albania Algeria Argentina Asia Australia Austria Bangladesh Belgium Belize Bolivia Brazil Canada Central America Chechnya Chile China Colombia Costa Rica Croatia Cuba Cyprus Czech Republic Denmark East Europe East Timor Ecuador Egypt El Salvador England Estonia Ethiopia Europe European Union Finland France French Guiana Germany Greece Guatemala Haiti Hungary Iceland India Indonesia Iran (Persia) Iraq Ireland Israel/Palestine Italy Japan Jordan Kenya Korea Kosovo Kuwait Kyrgyzstan Latin America Liberia Libya Mali Mexico Middle East Mongolia Morocco Namibia Nations Compared Netherlands New Zealand Nicaragua Niger Nigeria North America Norway Pacific Islands Pakistan Palestine Paraguay Peru Philippines Poland Polombia Portugal Romania Saudi Arabia Scandinavia Scotland Serbia Singapore Slovakia South Africa South America Southeast Asia Spain Sudan Sweden Switzerland Syria Thailand The Pacific Tunisia Turkey Turkmenistan UK (United Kingdom) Ukraine USA (America) USSR/Russia Uzbekistan Venezuela Vietnam West Europe Yemen Yugoslavia Zaire


Balkanization Communism Constitutions Democracy Dictators Diplomacy Floism Global Issues Hegemony Homeland Security Human Rights Immigration International Events Law Nationalism NATO Organizations Peace Politics Terrorism United Nations US Elections 2008 US Elections 2012 US Elections 2016 Violence War War Crimes Within the US


Christianity Hinduism Islam Judaism Liberation Theology Religion

Science & Technology

Alcohol Anthropology Automotives Biological Weapons Design and Architecture Drugs Energy Environment Internet Landmines Mathematics Medicine Natural Disasters Psychology Recycling Research Science and Humanities Sexuality Space Technology World Wide Web (Internet)


Geography Maps Tourism Transportation


1-TRIBUTES TO PROFESSOR HILTON 2001 Conference on Globalizations Academic WAR Forums Ask WAIS Experts Benefactors Chairman General News Member Information Member Nomination PAIS Research News Ronald Hilton Quotes Seasonal Messages Tributes to Prof. Hilton Varia Various Topics WAIS WAIS 2006 Conference WAIS Board Members WAIS History WAIS Interviews WAIS NEWS waisworld.org launch WAR Forums on Media & Research Who's Who