Previous posts in this discussion:
PostWhy Would China Want N Korea? (Brian Blodgett, USA, 09/08/17 11:31 am)
John E's comment about revisiting Tim Ashby's suggestion for China to take over North Korea implies that the Chinese would want North Korea.
The Chinese already have to deal, and that is the right word, with the many North Koreans who left the country and fled into China where they are not wanted (no skills for the most part) and a drain on the Chinese economy if they even are doing anything for them--years ago they were not. The NK citizens as we know have lived their entire lives being told one thing about the world--what the Kim family wanted them to hear. Would China want the estimated 26 million citizens to become a part of their country, and what would they gain from these citizens? The country itself is in shambles in basically every way possible and the cost China would have to spend on the country would likely be high even to raise it to the level of the poorer sections of China.
I really do not want to compare this to the US and our ongoing situation with illegals entering the country. One can draw many similarities to them (if one wanted to), but I am going to avoid going down that path.
So, back to China taking over North Korea. We would also have to consider how Japan, the Republic of Korea, and even Russia would feel about the "annexation." I doubt they would appreciate their neighbor moving even closer. We also would have to consider if North Korea would willingly become a neo-colony of China and the fact that the North Korean military may put up a fight against the Chinese. Or, just as likely, they would abandon their posts and simply head south into the Republic of Korea. Can you imagine the impact it would have on the northern sections of South Korea to wake up and find tens of thousands of refugees crossing into their country and seeing all the food and other consumables that they have never dreamt were so close to their own country?
In the end, I am not sure who would win in this scenario, as the North Koreans would likely be unwanted in either country and the neighboring countries would lose Kim but have China even closer (and so would the US if we remain allies with the Republic of Korea and Japan).
JE comments: So even the "least bad" scenarios are pretty bad. Brian Blodgett suggests that if the North becomes Chinese, most of Kim's former subjects would prefer to live with their countrymen (and women).
But at the very least, there would be no nuclear war.
Koreans in Mongolia
(Timothy Brown, USA
09/10/17 4:25 AM)
A small, but interesting addition to our discussion of the current North Korea imbroglio.
Several years back, while he was staying with us at our home, I asked Elbegdorj Tsakia, EB, recently President of Mongolia, about Mongolia's relations with China. He mentioned that when asked by China, Mongolia would take in North Korean refugees that were seeking refuge in China (he called them escapees). While he didn't ever say as much, he made it rather clear that one of Mongolia's most important relationships is with the PRC, a subtle but understandable bow to the ancient reality that "the strong do what they will. The weak do what they must."
JE comments: China outpopulates Mongolia by about 300 to one. Perhaps they need the extra people, although the most likely explanation is the PRC wanting to get the Koreans out of sight and mind. Stalin did something similar: the Koreans in the Soviet Union were deported en masse to Uzbekistan, leaving a significant and lasting impact on that region. See this recent radio piece (PRI's The World) on a Korean-Uzbek restaurant in Brighton Beach, Brooklyn. This is a fusion cuisine I never thought about: